Gareth Southgate has built his tournament success on narrow, low-shot wins - and it works (2024)

England’s victory over Serbia on Sunday evening was, in many ways, the ultimate Gareth Southgate win.

The critic sees Southgate putting tactical shackles on attackers, boring games, sitting back at 1-0, and a head coach slow to use his bench. The Southgate supporter sees tactical adjustments to compensate for injuries, a team showing different sides to their game, and a makeshift defence shutting down a quality attack.

Wherever you fall on the critic-supporter continuum, one point is not up for debate. From four attempts, it is four opening fixture wins for England at major tournaments under Southgate. If the riposte is that their opponents have been Tunisia (2-1), Croatia (1-0), Iran (6-2) and Serbia (1-0), then the critic ought to look at the history books. England never started tournaments well pre-Southgate: two wins, seven draws and five defeats in opening games at Euros and World Cups between 1986 and 2016.

So much of England’s success under Southgate has been vanquishing demons from that era. The style has become more synonymous with continental teams of the 2010s than English ones:plenty of possession, long passing sequences, system switching and high-pressing. The results, though, beating teams by a narrow margin and concentrating on a strong defence, feel stereotypically English.

England’s win over Serbia had a combined total of 11 shots, the fewest in any Euros game since 1980. “We knew it was going to be a tight game,” said match-winner Jude Bellingham. “We knew there’d been a lot of goals in the other games, but we try to keep to our own standards and play the opposition that’s in front of us — not the theme of the tournament.”

Three of the five lowest-shot games since Euro 1980 have featured Southgate’s England and they have won all three. It underlines Bellingham’s point about England’s “own standards”, concerned with keeping a high floor of a performance rather than smashing the ceiling.

“The theme of the tournament” that Bellingham describes is goals. Only England and Spain have won games with a clean sheet (and Spain gave away a penalty against Croatia). Spain and Germany were both ahead by three goals at half-time.

The Premier League just had its highest-ever scoring season, with a goals-per-game rate not seen since the mid-1960s. Much of that is attributed to Manchester City head coach Pep Guardiola, partly for his City side scoring lots and partly for his inspiration of other coaches to favour attacking philosophies and passing football.

Guardiola is used as an example with which to condemn Southgate, that England would already be World Cup winners and European Champions under the Catalan coach. But for all their differences, they approach knockout games in similar ways, sharing a disdain for jeopardy and a desire for control. Both want their teams to defend with possession, prevent counter-attacks and stay defensively solid.

“We built this team off clean sheets,” said Declan Rice after beating Serbia. There is a growing philosophical gulf between the tactically idealist Premier League and the England men’s team. That might be for the best.

Southgate’s words at the last World Cup were telling: “The (England) job is not just to have a philosophy: the job is to win matches.” At that World Cup, England’s opening goal was also a first-half Bellingham header, like against Serbia, but they went on to put six past Iran. This time, it was more like 2020 — another tournament where England arrived with defensive injuries.

Southgate is without the first-choice left side of his defence, with centre-back Harry Maguire not making the tournament and left-back Luke Shaw not yet fit. That explained why England were atypically direct in build-up. Serbia’s 3-4-3 press can be suffocating and with a clear pressing trigger of a right-footed left-back in Kieran Trippier, Southgate had Jordan Pickford play short to bait the press, then play over it.

No 9 Harry Kane was permanently engaged in an old-school scrap against centre-back Nikola Milenkovic. He only had two first-half touches, but in pinning the back line he made space for England’s No 10s to play. It was what the game needed.

Marc Guehi deputised solidly alongside John Stones on his major tournament debut and only their third start together. Guehi went toe-to-toe with Serbia No 9 Dusan Vlahovic, matching him in the air and defending touch-tight on the floor.

The nearest Vlahovic came was a second-half shot from distance, which Pickford tipped over. Vlahovic and Aleksandar Mitrovic had their supply cut. Serbia’s 3-4-1-2 system is all about flying wing-backs, direct play and early crosses. Only two of their 19 attempted crosses reached a team-mate — their worst return since two from 13 attempts against Brazil at the 2022 World Cup.

If England’s winner was all about a midfielder crashing the opposition box, then their defensive success was about those midfielders getting back to defend Serbia’s crosses. “The first half shows why we can score goals against any team and the second half shows why we can keep a clean sheet against any team,” said Bellingham.

Here’s one example, with Declan Rice dashing back to head clear a Filip Kostic cross.

Similarly, from an almost identical Kostic cross, England have seven in their own box and a two-v-two out wide. It ensures England keep a numerical advantage at the back post (four-v-three) — not that they need it, as Bellingham hooks the cross clear.

Not pretty, not champagne football, but not many teams shut down Serbia like this. They scored 25 goals in 15 games post-World Cup, only failing to score twice (against Russia and Belgium). England gave up one shot in their box. Without Maguire, their best box-defender, they gave up relatively little to a strike partnership of Vlahovic and Mitrovic, plus Luka Jovic from the bench. Those three have over 80 international goals combined and are three different profiles.

Tactically, it was a real banana skin for England. Serbia head coach Dragan Stojkovic made no bones about defending Bellingham when asked pre-match: “We have to be very careful, we have to close the space and not give him free time to control the ball”.

That manifested itself as fouls — four on Bellingham. Stojkovic dropped chief creator Dusan Tadic and went for a physical, ball-winning midfield three of Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Sasa Lukic and Nemanja Gudelj. They were not there to let England play and were aggressive on passes through midfield. Only against Colombia at World Cup 2018 have England been fouled more in regulation time of a major tournament game under Southgate. Colombia’s game plan got under England’s skin, but this time, playing the game and not the occasion, they were remarkably less rattled.

It was an important game in busting the myth that playing Trent Alexander-Arnold in midfield would make England defensively porous, too. “He showed at moments the fabulous range of passing he has,” said Southgate. “We are obviously learning with him in this role. I think he showed some of the attributes he can bring. It’s great to see him come through that test.”

Rice covered and counter-pressed on Alexander-Arnold’s behalf, and while the Liverpool player’s passing was, by his own standards, good rather than great, it was clear from the off that England are much more flexible with him in attack. At times, he held the width, freeing Bellingham and Phil Foden to roam. All three would play as No 10s behind Serbia’s midfield, especially in the opening 30 minutes when the game was reduced to an England passing drill in Serbia’s half.

Here is an example from the first 10 minutes when Guehi threads a pass through midfield and Bellingham is fouled on the half-turn.

Ultimately, Southgate’s approach to knockout football looks less driven by any personal agenda and more trying to replicate what previous finalists have done: control games and not concede goals. Five of the past six finalists, including England at the last Euros, conceded two or fewer in the group stage.

A perfect opener? Far from it. But then again, it never needs to be. Good enough will do.

(Top photo: Eddie Keogh – The FA/The FA via Getty Images)

Liam Tharme is one of The Athletic’s Football Tactics Writers, primarily covering Premier League and European football. Prior to joining, he studied for degrees in Football Coaching & Management at UCFB Wembley (Undergraduate), and Sports Performance Analysis at the University of Chichester (Postgraduate). Hailing from Cambridge, Liam spent last season as an academy Performance Analyst at a Premier League club, and will look to deliver detailed technical, tactical, and data-informed analysis. Follow Liam on Twitter @LiamTharmeCoach