Graziano and Fowler's Week 3 buzz, upset picks, fantasy sleepers: The NFL's most impressive players so far (2024)

We're heading into Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season, and we're already seeing some early trends. We asked ESPN insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler for some insight into this week's slate. Which players have had the most impressive starts to the year, posting great numbers through two weeks? And who are the players and coaches potentially already on the hot seat, facing a load of pressure to make a statement over the next few games? (We name three, and surprise, they are all off to 0-2 starts to the season.)

Our experts also share their favorite upset picks for Week 3, including a team hit by early injuries struggling to tread water. And for fantasy managers looking to make all the right moves, Graziano and Fowler name must-start sleepers and point out potential fantasy flops. They get into all of it and cap it off with everything else they've heard this week, including injury updates, quarterback statuses and, yes, what's happening with the polarizing taunting rule point of emphasis that has caused an uproar in the season's early weeks.

Let's get started with the hottest starts to the season, but you can also jump to other big questions for Week 3.

Jump to:
Impressive starts | Under pressure
Upsets | Fantasy starts | Fantasy flops
Emptying the notebook

Which player has impressed you most so far this season?

Graziano: Derek Carr, QB, Raiders. Look, there are some usual suspects here. Russell Wilson. Tom Brady. Derrick Henry. But we're used to those guys impressing, right? Carr has the Raiders 2-0, and he's playing with tremendous confidence and comfort in his situation. His 817 passing yards lead the NFL, and he has four touchdowns to one interception.

Week 1 might not have been the prettiest for him statistically, but he erased deficits of 14-0, 17-10, 24-17 and 27-24 to finally beat the Ravens in overtime. Then six days later, he lit up the Steelers. I've never been a huge fan of Carr's whole chip-on-shoulder act, but I can understand why he has one. He has been doubted an awful lot and, as he himself mentioned after Sunday's game, has started fast before to only fade down the stretch. So we have to wait to see whether he and the Raiders can cash this in -- but so far, he looks tough and locked in.

Fowler: Good one, Dan. Carr might be the most underappreciated player in football. Many people around the league have been high on him for a long time. He and Raiders must prove this time is for real.

I'll go with Von Miller, OLB, Broncos. Miller clearly still has his fastball, posting three sacks and five tackles for loss through two games. I talked to a scout who watched Miller in the preseason and said, "Uh, he looks exactly the same as prime Miller." Maybe the year off helped him reset. And an already solid Denver defense gets a third-down wrecker.

Graziano: When I think about the fact that the Broncos actually had a decision to make about Miller this offseason, it feels like so long ago. They wanted him to take a pay cut, he refused, and they backed down, bringing him back at his $17 million salary in spite of legitimate questions about how much he would have left coming off injury. He has backed the whole thing up, for sure. The 2-0 Broncos' upcoming schedule looks like a pass-rusher's delight, too.

Fowler: On deck are the Jets, who have allowed Zach Wilson to take 10 sacks through two weeks. Miller joins an interesting mix of Comeback Player of the Year candidates, along with the Cardinals' Chandler Jones, Giants' Saquon Barkley and Panthers' Christian McCaffrey.

Which player or coach is under the most pressure now?

Fowler: Mike Zimmer, coach, Vikings. Let's frame this in the proper perspective: A 66-50-1 record since 2014 is pretty darn good. It's hard to question that Zimmer is a talented coach, and his players play hard for him. But the six coaches with longer tenures than Zimmer -- Bill Belichick, Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, Pete Carroll, Andy Reid and Sean Payton -- all won Super Bowls at their current spots. That's no coincidence. It's tough to get past eight seasons in one job without reaching or winning the big game. The Vikings might need to show at least modest progress toward that goal.

Graziano: It does feel like it has been a little too long since Zimmer and the Vikings felt like a real threat to contend for the Super Bowl. Life comes at you fast.

OK, for me: Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons. Atlanta is 0-2, and the offense has looked lifeless with just 4.6 yards per play. First-year head coach Arthur Smith isn't going to feel the brunt of the pressure just yet, but the Falcons made a conscious decision to keep Ryan (actually reworking his contract in a way that might keep him there next year as well) instead of using the No. 4 pick in the draft on Justin Fields or Mac Jones. It's on Ryan to start making that look like the right decision, and soon. His 28.9 Total QBR ranks 30th in the league, and he has more interceptions than touchdown passes through two weeks.

Fowler: Yeah, barring progress, this sort of feels like it could be Ryan's last season in Atlanta, given the cap implications being more manageable in 2022 ($48 million cap hit vs. $40 million in dead cap). We'll have to see how it plays out.

Another sneaky player under pressure is Carson Wentz, QB, Colts. His availability is in question yet again. It's not his fault he keeps getting injured, and he's trying to tough it out. But when his new team needed him in a tight game against the Rams, he was on the sideline. And with the Colts in an 0-2 hole, Wentz is hobbling around on two sprained ankles. Two! He might need to sit again, just like he sat out all those playoff moments in Philadelphia. The Colts bet big on Wentz and need him in the worst way.

Graziano: What a time to be alive, when $40 million is a manageable dead cap hit. Of course, Wentz is a big part of the reason for that, isn't he? The Eagles are carrying $33.8 million in dead money on this year's cap because of the Wentz trade. He and Jared Goff have raised the bar on what's acceptable on that front.

What's your top upset pick for Week 3?

Graziano: Packers (+3.5) over 49ers. I know the Niners have had the Packers' number (when healthy) the past couple of years, but I feel like San Francisco has been on a tightrope so far, and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are driven in a way that they haven't been in years before. Rodgers will lock in on whomever's criticizing him this week and use it to feed the upset.

Fowler: Yeah, we saw Monday night that Rodgers still makes throws that no other human outside of Northwest Missouri can. That uneven Packers defense still concerns me, though.

For my pick, I'll go Bengals (+3.5) over Steelers. Pittsburgh is banged up, with several key defensive players nursing groin injuries and QB Ben Roethlisberger limited this week with a chest injury. The offense has sputtered through two games, as one of the nine teams averaging fewer than 20 offensive points per game. And for the Bengals, I expect Joe Burrow will tighten it up after three interceptions last week against Chicago.

Graziano: I like it. I took a long look at that one, too, but the Bengals burned me last week, and I'm having a hard time forgiving Burrow for those three interceptions. It sounds like Pittsburgh outside linebacker T.J. Watt should be all right for this game, which means a real tough test for those Bengals linemen tasked with keeping Burrow upright. Cincinnati receiver Ja'Marr Chase looks like a No. 5 overall pick, but if Burrow keeps taking hits, you know the chatter about how they should have drafted tackle Penei Sewell over Chase will only get louder.

Who is a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 3?

Fowler: Michael Carter, RB, Jets (at Broncos). The fourth-round rookie emerged in Week 2 with 88 yards on 14 touches. He has the most upside among the Jets' three-man tailback attack, and with rookie quarterback Zach Wilson struggling with four interceptions in Week 2, a solid running game would only help the QB combat the Broncos' impressive pass defense.

Graziano: Daniel Jones, QB, Giants (vs. Falcons). If you're streaming quarterbacks, take a look in Danny Dimes' direction. He's coming off a strong showing against Washington, with three extra days of rest, and he's playing the Falcons, who have allowed eight touchdown passes already through two games. Sure, it was Tom Brady who threw five of those eight Sunday, but Jalen Hurts got them for three the week before. Atlanta's pass defense looks about as generous as any in the league so far.

Jones helps with his legs, too. He had 95 rushing yards against Washington, and Atlanta has been vulnerable there as well. Hurts ran for 65 in Week 1, and Brady ran for six in Week 2, which is a lot for him. If you're stuck at QB for some reason, Jones looks like a pretty strong dart throw this week.

Fowler: At the least, Jones provides sneaky value as a top-three QB rusher. And at some point, receivers Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney have to break out, right?

Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop for Week 3?

Graziano: Darrell Henderson Jr, RB, Rams (vs. Buccaneers). This applies to Sony Michel, too, if Henderson sits with his rib cartilage injury. I feel like I'm 2-for-2 so far picking the starting running back on the team playing the Buccaneers. You generally want the Rams' starting running back (or just about any Rams player) in your fantasy lineup, but with Vita Vea & Co. on tap, it might be a good idea to look elsewhere this week. Tampa's defense is allowing 3.0 yards per carry and 57.5 rushing yards per game so far this season. Cordarrelle Patterson is the only running back to score against it.

Fowler: Someone will flirt with 100 yards rushing against the Bucs -- maybe in 2022. Funny you mention Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson (at Giants), because he's my flop this week. I know he's coming off the two-touchdown game, and he's an enticing do-it-all option, but he has never been a consistent performer, averaging 388 offensive yards per season from 2013 to '20. Mike Davis should continue carrying the load for Atlanta's running game, and Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts will get most of the targets in the passing game.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Fowler

• T.J. Watt's groin injury is not believed to be serious. A source said the belief, as of Tuesday, was he shouldn't miss significant time. This week is up in the air, but there's no major core-muscle damage here. One of the game's best players should be back in the lineup fairly soon for the Steelers.

• Browns receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (left knee) has a good chance to play this week. We've been saying that, but he has progressed well in recent weeks, and the belief out of Cleveland is he'll be in the lineup sooner rather than later. With fellow receiver Jarvis Landry out due to a knee injury, the Browns' passing game could use the boost.

• The Panthers' defense has been a revelation through two games, holding the Saints to the lowest offensive output in the Sean Payton era in Week 2. Carolina's plan this offseason was to loosen double-teams on uber-talented pass-rusher Brian Burns, so it added three free agents at modest prices -- Haason Reddick, Morgan Fox and DaQuan Jones -- for balance up front. The team has been pleased with all three, and in turn, Burns (two sacks through two games) has had more room to operate. Couple that with Shaq Thompson's improved play -- word out of Carolina is he entered the season leaner than in 2020 -- and a solid secondary, and Carolina can win with a big, fast and nasty defense.

• It is sort of the expectation at this point, but I'm hearing the Texans do not plan to play QB Deshaun Watson at all this season. If he takes the field in 2020, it will be for someone else. Things have been trending in this direction, but at this point, it wouldn't shock to see the team come out and say that. Watson is facing 22 active lawsuits with allegations of sexual assault and inappropriate behavior.

• For Thursday night, the Texans are expected to promote QB Jeff Driskel to the active roster. The current practice squad QB has made nine NFL starts in his career. So the Texans will roll with Davis Mills and Driskel in the short term while hoping Tyrod Taylor's hamstring issue heals up soon. The Texans have been competitive through two weeks and believe they might have something with Taylor.

Graziano

• Man, the Watson situation is still a topic that comes up when you talk to people with other teams. Tua Tagovailoa's injury has more than one outside observer wondering whether the Dolphins would reengage the Texans in Watson talks, but there are just so many hurdles to clear in order for a trade to happen. I'm told the Texans never budged from their demands, which were in the neighborhood of three first-round picks and two second-round picks, and no interested team was willing to go that high because of the active lawsuits. Teams don't know whether he's going to end up suspended or on the commissioner's exempt list, in which case they wouldn't have him or their picks. And teams also have to ask themselves serious questions about making him the face of their franchise in light of the extremely serious accusations against him. My sense of this is that it stays status quo all year. I get the impression that the league is fine letting Houston handle Watson's status while the NFL continues its investigation.

• Oh, my goodness are people talking about the taunting rule. Er, point of emphasis. Players obviously hate it and think it's aimed at preventing them from celebrating. The league insists it's not -- that it's aimed very specifically at preventing them from celebrating at the expense of or in the face of an opposing player. What's interesting to me is that the impetus for the renewed emphasis on this was not the team owners but rather coaches, who petitioned the league to begin enforcing the anti-taunting rule that was already on the books. Coaches were concerned about fights breaking out and players getting injured or suspended as a result. I would expect the pace of taunting penalties to slow down as the year goes on, as often happens with these early-season points of emphasis once the officials get a better idea of what the league does and doesn't want them to call. But it'll keep cropping up, likely right through the playoffs, and people will get grumpy about it every time it does.

• Expect the updates on Colts QB Carson Wentz to continue through the week. He has two sprained ankles as a result of Sunday's game, but the team hasn't ruled him out for this week. I'm told Wentz is determined to play because the "injury-prone" label is one he'd understandably like to shed, and the Colts obviously want him to play because they prefer him over Jacob Eason as the quarterback to help dig them out of their 0-2 hole. It's also worth remembering that the Eagles are watching this situation closely. Wentz has to play 75% of the Colts' offensive snaps this season (or just 70% if they make the playoffs) in order for the 2022 conditional second-round pick they sent the Eagles in the Wentz deal to convert to a first-rounder. If Wentz misses a game, that's potentially 6% or so of the offensive snaps gone. He'd have to miss only four games to put that 75% number in jeopardy -- and five missed games would just about rule it out.