NFL picks: Week 3 best bets (2024)

ESPN Betting Insiders

Sep 24, 2021, 10:36 AM

Intro by Doug Kezirian

Every NFL slate takes on a specific path that will dictate its bottom line for that particular weekend. Week 3 is poised to provide the rare afternoon game that will draw more handle than any prime-time game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) visit the Los Angeles Rams in a marquee matchup, as Tom Brady opposes Matthew Stafford in a game that might influence the race for the NFL MVP and NFC's top seed.

"There's a very good chance this is going to end up being the highest volume game of any non-prime-time game this entire season," Las Vegas SuperBook executive director John Murray told ESPN. "And it could be the rare week where the highest handle game is not the Sunday night game. The betting interest is so high."

The Rams opened as a small home favorite, but professional and recreational money has driven this price in favor of Tampa Bay. However, this line is not expected to reach the key number of three points.

Every Friday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (4-4-2, 2-4 last week), Tyler Fulghum (2-6, 2-4), Joe Fortenbaugh (7-5-1, 2-4) and Anita Marks (51-26, 25-9), Stats & Information's Seth Walder (9-10, 5-6) and Mackenzie Kraemer (0-2, 0-2), sports betting Deputy Editor David Bearman (4-3-1, 1-1-1) and Football Outsiders Aaron Schatz (8-3, 3-1) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape.

Here are their best bets for Week 3 of the NFL season.

Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday (unless otherwise indicated).

4 p.m. ET games

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders (-4, 45)

Fortenbaugh: This matchup was a pick 'em on last week's look-ahead line, making Las Vegas -4 perhaps the biggest overreaction to take place following Week 2's results. Remember what we all thought about Baltimore and Tennessee following their respective Week 1 performances? Both came back the following week to win outright as underdogs. The drop-off from Tua Tagovailoa to backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett isn't much, given what we've seen from Tua in his young career. In addition, I'm betting the Dolphins had a terrific week of practice after getting blanked 35-0 by Buffalo on Sunday. Note that Miami is 6-0 ATS over its past six games following a loss and 10-1 ATS over its past 11 after surrendering 30 or more points in its previous contest.

Pick: Dolphins +4

Walder: This is a bad spot for Peyton Barber. I wrote in my weekly fantasy article on line play that this was the worst projected run blocking matchup of the season so far: the Raiders have the worst run blocking unit in the league and the Dolphins have the fourth-best run stop unit, according to our win rate metrics. Add in that Barber has been one of the worst runners in the league in terms of rush yards over expectation over the last few years, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, and he's an easy fade. The only concern here is game script with the Raiders favored, but I'm willing to eschew that given the extreme nature of the first two points working against Barber.

Pick: Barber under 38.5 rushing yards (-110)

New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-10.5, 41)

Walder: Elijah Moore led Jets wide receivers in snaps last week with 52. And so far this season, he ranked third-worst in receiving yards over expectation with -54, based on metrics from NFL Next Gen Stats. Is it possible Moore and Zach Wilson are just an awful combination? It's in the range of outcomes, sure. But to that much of an extreme seems pretty unlikely. The Jets' offense is bad, but we're not asking for much to hit the over here.

Pick: Moore over 35.5 receiving yards (-110)

Marks: Wilson just had to face Bill Belichick's defense and now must go up against Vic Fangio's vaunted unit in Denver. Von Miller (11 QB pressures this season) gets a favorable matchup against Jets tackle Morgan Moses, and defensive backs Ronald Darby and Patrick Surtain Jr. should feast on Wilson come Sunday.

Pick: Broncos -4.5 in 6-point teaser with Cardinals -1.5, Wilson over 1.5 INTs (+155)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5, 55.5) at Los Angeles Rams

Marks: The Bucs have been outgained in both games this season and have allowed over 700 combined passing yards and now face a Rams team with Matthew Stafford now at the helm. Stafford has three TD passes of 15 yards or more and will use play-action to account for the Bucs' pass rush.

Tom Brady has looked great but will now get a true test against the Rams, who held him to 55% passing and less than 5 yards per attempt in their matchup last season. Aaron Donald will be his usual disrupting force in the pocket.

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 55.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Schatz: The Seahawks are third in passing DVOA through two games, while the Vikings rank 22nd against the pass. Patrick Peterson is no longer his younger self now that he's playing for the Vikings, and Bashaud Breeland struggled to contain the elderly A.J. Green last week. It's hard to imagine that they'll be able to keep Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf below two touchdowns, before we even get into the possibility of Russell Wilson throwing to other receivers. We have Wilson covering this prop 82% of the time in our simulations, making this a strong bet even at -200 odds.

Pick: Wilson over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-200)

Marks: There is potential for big points in this game, and I expect Wilson to have all day in the pocket and dice up a Vikings defense that is allowing offenses a 14% explosive play rate. Lockett has a favorable matchup against Breeland, who has allowed over 100 receiving yards and two TDs this season.

Pick: Seahawks team total over 27.5, Wilson over 282.5 passing yards (-115), Lockett over 73.5 receiving yards (-115)

8:20 p.m. ET game

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 49.5)

Bearman: The impending doom and end of the Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay was just like most post-NFL Week 1 thoughts ... an overreaction. Although there are some holes on defense, things are just fine up in Lambeau. The Packers do take a step up in class this week with a cross-country trip to the undefeated 49ers, but we are getting a good line here, especially with the hook. The Niners opened the season with back-to-back road wins, which is notable, but remember, it was Detroit and Philly, two teams without high expectations. So the 49ers are stepping up in class as well, facing a Rodgers-led offense that just torched the Lions for 35 points.

Even though the Niners shut down Jalen Hurts and the Eagles last week, they also allowed 430 yards (314 through the air) to the same Lions whom the Packers just beat up a few nights ago. They will be missing CB Jason Verrett and LB Dre Greenlaw, which should allow Rodgers and Aaron Jones to move the ball consistently. This is not a great position for the Niners, as they were 0-5 as a home favorite last season. Rodgers, meanwhile, is 5-2 as a road 'dog over the past two seasons. I took the Packers -155 to win the North and didn't bat an eye after Week 1, rolling with them last week vs. Detroit. I'm back on them this week, with some points to go with it.

Pick: Packers +3.5

Walder: Deebo Samuel leads the NFL yards-after-catch over expectation this season with +87, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. And while he has been a strong YAC player before, his 2021 total has already exceeded his 2019 total when he played 15 games (it's about half his 2020 total, when he played seven). He also has +33 completed air yards over expectation this season when he accumulated -57 last season. Don't get me wrong, breakouts happen. But his torrid pace so far is unlikely to continue.

Pick: Samuel under 65.5 receiving yards (-115)

1 p.m. ET games

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-3, 48)

Bearman: The Falcons and Giants have been difficult to figure out in the betting landscape the last couple of years. One thing is for certain, I don't want action on either team, as laying three points with the Giants sounds like bad business, and having faith the Falcons won't screw up and throw two pick-6s late isn't something I want my money on either.

However, betting against both these offenses is something I am interested in. The Falcons rank dead last in offensive DVOA, per our friends at Football Outsiders, 29th in passing and last in rushing. They have scored three TDs through two weeks and given up two on defense. Matt Ryan has looked awful outside of some garbage time points vs. the Bucs last week, and the running game is nonexistent. The Giants looked like they had a pulse last week against a surprisingly bad Washington defense, scoring 29 points, but that was on five FGs and QB Daniel Jones' legs as they continued to stall without an actual running game. Shy of Jones or Ryan giving away more points (which is always possible), I don't see these teams combining for 48 here and will play in a tightly-contested game decided late on someone's mistake.

Pick: Under 48

Marks: Sterling Shepard has been Jones' go-to receiver this season, averaging 10 targets per game. The Falcons have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and are dead last in pressure rate. Expect Jones to have all day to connect with Shepard.

Pick: Shepard over 5.5 receptions (+120), Shepard over 61.5 receiving yards (-115)

Washington Football Team at Buffalo Bills (-7.5, 45)

Schatz: Based on DVOA this season, Washington has been the better team of these two, but of course we don't make picks based on a two-game sample. In our DAVE ratings, which incorporate preseason forecasts, Buffalo is currently sixth and Washington is 17th. Still, that's not a big enough gap to support a line that's over a touchdown. In particular, the more samples we get, the more it's clear that Taylor Heinicke is not a run of the mill backup. He's had positive DVOA in all three of his NFL starts, so the difference between Heinicke and Ryan Fitzpatrick is likely smaller than the drop we usually see from starter to backup. I liked this pick a lot more when the line started around Washington +9, but I'll stick with it until the line gets down below a touchdown.

Pick: Washington +7.5

Fulghum: Any time I see Josh Allen's pass attempt prop under 40, I'm firing. The Bills throw at a top-3 rate above expectation. Brian Daboll has designed an offense that puts the ball in Allen's hands as often as possible. Buffalo games are also averaging the second-most snaps per game so far this season, meaning the pace is always rapid. Even in a 35-0 shutout last week, Allen threw the ball 33 times. Washington is likely going to keep the game closer than that, meaning Allen should soar past this number.

Pick: Allen over 35.5 passing attempts (+100)

Fortenbaugh: I'll be the first to admit I was dead wrong in assessing Washington's defense. I wanted to give Ron Rivera the benefit of the doubt, but last year's stats were built on the backs of lousy quarterback opposition. For evidence of this fact, take note that Giants quarterback Daniel Jones just posted the sixth-best passer rating of his career (29 games) against this WFT defense -- in a road contest on a Thursday night. Allen and the Bills owe the famed #BillsMafia a great showing after that Week 1 dud against the Steelers.

Pick: Bills -1.5 in 6-point teaser with Cardinals -1.5

Kezirian: The Bills are flying a bit below the radar, but I think the conversations will change after this game. This is still a team that surpassed expectations in 2020 and has just had a weird beginning to 2021. They lost a tough home game to Pittsburgh, despite not allowing the Steelers past midfield in the first half. The Steelers defense also played exceptionally well, only to have numerous key players miss the loss to Las Vegas. Buffalo then blew out Miami, which lost starting QB Tua Tagovailoa early.

Washington is a decent team but will be relegated to its backup quarterback. Plus, the defense is not as special as everyone wants to believe. It dominated last season within the division, but the NFC East lost Dak Prescott to injury and Carson Wentz played the worst football of his career. The Bills should win this game, and that's all we need in a teaser.

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (-7.5, 45.5)

Fortenbaugh: Good luck to Ohio State product Justin Fields in his first career start playing behind that horrific Chicago line on an offense that currently ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per play. Between the crowd noise and the Browns' pass rush, I'm betting Chicago doesn't find much success on offense this Sunday. On the other sideline, Cleveland wants to run the football with Nick Chubb -- which keeps the clock running and is good for our under -- and will be without wide receiver Jarvis Landry, which is also good for our under.

Pick: Under 45.5

Marks: I don't want to burst Bears fans' bubble, but Fields is going to struggle behind that offensive line against the Browns. Cleveland will get after him, but the rookie QB should be able to buy some time with his legs and will look Darnell Mooney's way frequently. Mooney is averaging eight targets per game and is running routes on over 90% of Bears dropbacks.

Pick: Browns -1.5 in 6-point teaser with Colts/Titans under 54, Mooney over 3.5 receptions (-115), Mooney over 40.5 receiving yards (-115)

Walder: One legitimate knock against Justin Fields coming out of college was his performance under pressure, and a lot of that had to do with his propensity to take sacks. His 7.6% sack rate last season was double that of Mac Jones or Zach Wilson and several percentage points higher than Trevor Lawrence. Fields' team was usually at a talent advantage at Ohio State - that's not going to be the case anymore. It's a tough spot for his first start and I think the Browns will rack up some sacks.

Pick: Total sacks over 4.5 (-140 at DraftKings)

Baltimore Ravens (-8, 50) at Detroit Lions

Kezirian: This is a situational play for me. The Ravens are coming off an emotional high from Sunday Night Football, rallying in the final minutes to defeat a Super Bowl favorite in the Chiefs. Now, they must hit the road again and face a Lions squad that is a bit better than we envisioned. I like Baltimore to start flat and for Detroit to accomplish some things in the first half. I doubt the Lions will lead at the break, like we saw on Monday Night Football, but I would not be shocked. Their offense is more competent than people realized, and Jared Goff should be able to find some opportunities against the Ravens' depleted secondary.

Pick: Lions first half +4

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-5, 48)

Bearman: Over the summer, I bought in to the Colts, who returned a strong defense and replaced the aging Philip Rivers with Carson Wentz, who everyone agreed needed a change in scenery to get back to the 2017 Wentz -- a Pro Bowler who might have won NFL MVP if he had not gotten hurt late in the season. With second-year RB Jonathan Taylor and reinforcements on the O-line, the sky was the limit. Yet, we're two weeks into the season and everything has gone wrong. Injuries have rocked the team, leading to two home losses to start the season and not many positives to talk about. With Wentz questionable with, not one, but two sprained ankles, the Colts now visit division rival Tennessee, which is coming off an incredible come-from-behind victory in Seattle.

After a rough first game to better-than-we-thought Arizona, the Titans went back to Tennessee football, using Derrick Henry's 182 rushing yards and three TDs and Ryan Tannehill's 347 passing yards to amass over 500 yards of offense. I don't see the Indy defense, which is allowing 6.65 yards per play (28th in the NFL) and 9.6 pass yards per play (30th), slowing them down. The only pause when laying five points with the Titans is their bad defense allowing too many points (34 PPG allowed is 29th in the NFL) or even a late backdoor score. But with Indy starting either a very banged up Wentz or Jacob Eason, I am not too worried. This is the game in which Tennessee takes control of a subpar division.

Pick: Titans -5

Walder: I'm surprised this game sack line isn't 5.5 given the quarterbacks in this matchup. It's likely going to be a sack magnet (Carson Wentz) against a former sack magnet (Ryan Tannehill), with the latter showing signs of reverting to his former ways early in 2021. So far this year Tannehill has recorded a 10.2% sack rate; reminiscent of his league-leading 9.4% sack rate two years ago. Granted, Taylor Lewan was a late scratch last week, but it's still a concerning note. I suspect one reason why the line isn't higher is the pass rushes units involved. The Colts have ranked 30th in pass rush win rate thus far, though the Titans are more respectable at 12th. It's a factor, certainly, but I'll always lean more on quarterbacks than pass rushers when forecasting sacks.

Pick: Total sacks over 4.5 (-140 at DraftKings)

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 54.5)

Kraemer: I know the Chiefs are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games, but coming home after a brutal loss seems like the perfect spot to get back on the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes has covered the spread four straight times following an outright loss. The Chargers have been relatively average in two games, ranking 18th in offensive EPA and 15th in defensive EPA. Despite that, this line has moved under a touchdown after sitting at 7 last week. Teams that start 0-2 ATS tend to bounce back, going 50-33 ATS in Week 3 since 2010, and none of those teams had Mahomes.

Pick: Chiefs -6.5

Bearman: Yes, the Chiefs are good and sometimes unstoppable. They have back-to-back Super Bowl appearances and are a favorite to go back a third time. However, in the betting world, they are currently near the bottom, going 2-11 ATS over their last 13 games. Anyone who watched the Chiefs' first two games, especially the KC defense, is salivating on getting a TD with the Chargers. Here are some numbers: 469 yards per game allowed (last), 202 rush yards per game allowed (last); total yards (7.6), rush yards (6.1) and pass yards (9.9) per play are all last or second to last as well. That is the main reason the Chiefs aren't covering any games -- they can't get off the field on defense and let their offense do it's thing. Opponents have scored points on an incredible 10 of 19 drives against the Chiefs this season.

In comes a Chargers team who, for those with short memories, led KC for about 90 percent of their Week 2 matchup last year, with the Chiefs needing a field goal at the buzzer to force and then win in OT. The Chargers outgained the Chiefs, put a lot of pressure on Mahomes (sacked him twice) and likely would have won if they hadn't settled for a short field goal with two minutes left. The Chargers are a play away from being 2-0 (which we say often with them) and are one of the few teams that has the D-Line to keep things tight with the Chiefs. I am not calling for the outright upset (+250), but you should shop for that 7 if you can find it and ride the 'dog here.

Pick: Chargers +6.5

Fulghum: Chargers QB Justin Herbert has eclipsed 40 attempts and 335 yards passing in both games he has played this season. Do you expect those numbers to drop in a matchup with Mahomes at Arrowhead? I don't. The total for this game is a whopping 55. Both teams -- intelligently -- throw the ball at a rate well above expectation because they have dynamic QBs under center. Expect both signal-callers to air it out early and often. Herbert, however, has an easier matchup against Kansas City's defense and a lower threshold to clear.

Pick: Herbert over 296.5 passing yards (-115)

Kezirian: I realize everyone is highlighting Kansas City's flaws, but this is still a team that's a Clyde Edwards-Elaire fumble from being 2-0 against two solid opponents. By the way, why is Andy Reid calling basic plays when he has Mahomes and needs to burn clock? I digress. The Chiefs are still the AFC's gold standard and will demonstrate that on Sunday. The Chargers have their attention, given Los Angeles has its franchise QB and is making some noise. KC is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games, but we just need them to win to complete the teaser.

Pick: Chiefs -.5 in 6-point teaser with Bills -1.5

Walder: The Chiefs rank last in pass rush win rate and run stop win rate. They're allowing over 10 yards per pass attempt and six yards per carry. Their defense has been miserable -- but that's not why they were almost unanimously considered the best team in football going into the season. That part -- the offense, and specifically the passing offense -- has lived up to the billing. The Chiefs rank first and second in EPA per play and EPA per pass play, respectively. Offensive success is much more valuable than defensive success because it's far more reliable from game-to-game. Which is why if FPI were setting this line, it'd put the Chiefs at 7.5 -- and that's a big single point of difference compared to the spread.

Pick: Chiefs -6.5

Marks: The Chiefs defense is allowing over 45 yards per possession this season and has allowed opposing offenses to go 8-for-8 scoring in the red zone. That's bad news against a Chargers team that leads the league in red zone possessions. Expect Austin Ekeler, who played almost 65% of the snaps in Week 2 and had nine targets, to have a big day.

Pick: Chargers team total over 23.5, Ekeler over 95.5 rushing/receiving yards (-115)

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-3, 42)

Kezirian: I realize Zach Wilson is a rookie and Bill Belichick is a grand master, but it was nice to see the Patriots' defense deliver last week. In fact, it also did against Miami in the opener. In comes Jameis Winston off two interceptions and a loss, and I am skeptical about what confidence he will bring. Plus, the Saints have endured some obstacles, having to play a home game in Jacksonville and then playing last weekend without numerous offensive assistants who were out with COVID-19. I just think New Orleans is in a bit of disarray, so I will side with Belichick and the home team.

Pick: Patriots -3

Schatz: It's a new era for New England and New Orleans, an era dominated by defense rather than offense. Through two games, the Patriots and Saints both rank in the top five for defensive DVOA and the bottom half of the league for offensive DVOA. This is not a surprise, by the way; our preseason projections had both teams in the top 10 for defensive DVOA and the bottom half of the league for offensive DVOA. Both teams are also playing a conservative style of offense, slowing things down to run fewer plays. So far this year, the Patriots are 21st in situation-neutral pace, while the Saints are 31st. Our simulations have this game going under 72% of the time, with the most likely result a total of 37.

Pick: Under 42

Walder: Go routes, post routes and corner routes all result in fewer completions per route run against two-man coverage. It's not a look that NFL offenses see all that frequently, except when facing the Saints, who have rolled it out on one-third of their defensive dropbacks this year, according to ESPN metrics using NFL Next Gen Stats. Nelson Agholor is a deep threat who has run vertical routes 49% of the time, the eighth-highest rate among wide receivers with at least 30 routes run. I'm betting New England will generate its offense elsewhere in Week 3.

Pick: Agholor under 45.5 receiving yards (-115)

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 43.5)

Kraemer: This line opened -6.5 on Sunday night and has already shifted down to -3. That feels like an overreaction. The Bengals have the fifth-worst offense in EPA per play, and that came against the Vikings and Bears. The Steelers are in a whole different class defensively, especially if they can get healthy. T.J. Watt, Joe Haden and Devin Bush all practiced on Wednesday, and if they all play Sunday, the Bengals will be in trouble on offense. They have one of the worst offensive lines in football, as Joe Burrow has already been sacked 10 times. I expect the Bengals to go under their team total of 19.5 and the Steelers to cover the 3, with or without Ben Roethlisberger.

Pick: Steelers -3, Bengals team total under 19.5

Arizona Cardinals (-7.5, 52) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Kezirian: Successful NFL bettors will agree that winning requires a willingness to stomach some picks. This is one of those plays. All Jacksonville has done is turn the ball over and draw rumors that Urban Meyer already might leave for USC. Meanwhile, Arizona QB Kyler Murray is the second betting favorite for MVP at +600. While the opening win in Tennessee was impressive, I think this could be a tricky spot for the Cardinals. It's already their second trip to the Southeast, and NFL players all say that Florida's humidity in September is an issue.

Some trends also support this play, for what it's worth. Since the 1970 merger, home underdogs of at least seven points within the season's first month are 91-59-4 ATS (.607 cover percentage). Basically, it says that the market is overreacting to a team that has played poorly and catching a solid number of points. That same situation is 37-21 ATS over the past 25 seasons. Along the same lines, Jacksonville is one of five teams that are 0-2 ATS. Since 2010, such teams are 50-33 ATS (.602 cover percentage) in their third game. Again, the market typically overreacts to two performances.

It ain't pretty, but let's roll with the Jags.

Pick: Jaguars +7.5

Fortenbaugh: With a divisional showdown at the Rams on deck, Arizona faces a somewhat worrisome look-ahead spot in Week 3. What worries me more, however, is the idea of backing a Jacksonville outfit that does only one thing well: turn the ball over (five turnovers, tied for first in the NFL). Perhaps the Cardinals fail to cover the spread, but I like them to cover their half of a two-team teaser leg.

Pick: Cardinals -1.5 in 6-point teaser with Bills -1.5

Fulghum: Compared to the way Meyer is starting his NFL career, Kliff Kingsbury looks like the second coming of Bill Walsh. Of course, it helps to have Murray -- who is second in the MVP market behind only Mahomes -- executing the plays you draw up. Arizona should easily handle the Jaguars, and getting the Panthers through the key numbers of -7 and -3 feels really nice against a Texans team that is forced to turn to third-round rookie QB Davis Mills.

Pick: Cardinals -1.5 in 6-point teaser with Panthers -2

Marks: The Jags will not know what hit them against Murray and the Cardinals. Rookie receiver Rondale Moore is off to a fast start and will be one of the beneficiaries. He leads the Cardinals in targets with 13 and played almost 50% of the snaps in Week 2.

Pick: Cardinals -1.5 in 6-point teaser with Chargers/Chiefs over 48.5